A newly released JORC exploration target at Trigg Minerals’ (ASX: TMG) flagship Antimony Canyon Project has revealed the potential for a far greater scale than the historical resource estimate, having a range of 12.8 to 15.6Mt at 0.75% to 1.5% Sb – implying 96,000t to 234,000t of contained antimony.
The ET has been derived from a 4.31 x 2.42km footprint that contains a mineralised volume of between 5.6 to 6.8 million cubic metres. This is based on a density of 2.3 t/m³ and an average mineralised thickness of 3m – assumptions that are highly conservative and which TMG’s current exploration program are looking to increase.
ACP’s historical resource estimate was already the USA’s largest and highest-grade antimony deposit at 12.7Mt @ 0.79% Sb for 100kt of contained antimony. However, it was based on just 6 out of more than 30 mines within the project, and while this exploration target has included most of them – there are still numerous high priority historical production sites that are yet to be factored in. Additionally, TMG has confirmed the presence of stibnite mineralisation 10km north of ACP – displaying clear potential for a district-scale system.
As the antimony price continues to trade above US$60,000/t with no reprieve in sight, TMG just executed a $12.5 million placement that now has the company perfectly positioned to achieve its vertically integrated mining and smelter strategy – beginning with delineating a JORC 2012 and S-K 1300 Maiden Mineral Resource.
This comes amid a revolutionary US-government led shakeup in the critical minerals sector which is completely unprecedented. In a transformational public-private partnership, the Department of Defense is set to become rare earths miner MP Materials’ (NYSE: MP) largest shareholder with a US$400 million investment. This comes as the company received a US$1 billion financing offer from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs to construct a domestic 10Kt rare earth magnet manufacturing facility.
Critically, the DoD is guaranteeing a floor price for NdPr of US$110/kg, well above the current spot price of around US$60/kg – as well as committing to buy the entire facility’s capacity for 10 years. The US government has demonstrated its willingness to insulate MP materials from China-induced price fluctuations in exchange for reducing the country’s magnet import dependence.
Given that the US is almost entirely reliant on importing antimony, and China is continuing to go to great lengths to prohibit American companies procuring it, it stands to reason that there could be similar government facilities on the horizon for antimony. With TMG’s expert team and rapidly advancing plans for near-term extraction, the company is in a prime position to receive them.
Markets have reacted extremely positively to this level of government support, with MP’s market cap rising from US$4.6 billion to US$7.4 billion, despite no immediate change in their operations, or meaningful increase in rare earths prices. Given that TMG is currently capped at under $90 million with a strategic antimony asset of national importance, the company would likely see a significant revaluation upwards if they were a recipient of catalytic government funding that is similarly supportive.
Visualising the Treasure Trove
The extensive due diligence that TMG completed to confirm the validity of historical estimates was a rigorous and prolific undertaking, which involved a total review and digitisation of vast amounts of USBM and USGS data.
This allows for a high degree of confidence in the exploration target, which in turn gives TMG a very clear opportunity to conduct their 2025 trenching and drilling program across the high-priority areas that have the highest value adding potential for the maiden resource.
Most of ACP’s historical mines have been captured in this projected orezone model below, where green shading highlights surface exposures of the target calcareous sandstone horizon, while the pink line represents up to a 250m lateral projection into the canyon walls used for volumetric modelling:
Source: TMG
When considering the historical mines and adits located well outside the 250-metre envelope, the potential for broader mineralised development than currently modelled is apparent, and the confines of the exploration target could be considered conservative.
Thinking more broadly about the potential for a district-scale system, it’s exciting that widespread antimony mineralisation has been confirmed in areas previously untested by historical resource work or mining activity at ACP, and critically – 10km north at TMG’s Dry Wash Canyon.
The company has taken 250 samples from ACP and DWCP, with assays due back shortly. TMG has also begun a CSAMT (Controlled-Source Audio-Frequency Magnetotellurics) survey at key ACP target areas, which will capture subsurface resistivity and reveal conductive or resistive rock units and structures.
TMG has moved swiftly to strategically expand its landholding in the region, to the north past DWCP and further south past ACP. This, and a clear indication of antimony mineralisation being fundamentally controlled by a series of prominent North-South trending structures, which show potential to form a significant mineralised corridor linking the ACP system directly to the newly confirmed mineralisation at DWCP, can be visualised below:
Source: TMG
Building America’s Critical Minerals Industry
The US government’s funding of critical minerals seems predominately driven by national security interests, and the safeguarding of important industries’ economic welfare, rather than the strict feasibility requirements that typically drive investment into the mining sector. It’s a game of removing risk, and shareholders in critical minerals companies are being rewarded with outsized returns because of it.
Despite the Mountain Pass Mine in California generating US$203 million in revenue and a US$65 million net loss in 2024, MP currently trades at a market cap of US$7.4 billion – up from US$3.1 billion in April before the China rare earths export ban, as well as DoD and private sector funding.
It wouldn’t take more than a low capital cost, small scale mining operation that begins at surface for TMG to start producing a few thousand tons of antimony annually. At a US$60k/t, the revenue would be comparable to MP – and it begs the question if TMG would be entitled to a similar revenue multiple, especially given what the margin profile would look like at that price.
The reality is that Mountain Pass is the only rare earths mine in America, and is likely the country’s best chance at boosting domestic production – so the government is funding it. The DoD is also providing US$150 million debt financing for MP to expand their heavy rare earths separation capacity.
Antimony benefits from having virtually none of the metallurgical and processing complexities that almost always plague rare earths operations, and assets that have a history of production are in prime position for rapid development.
As a pureplay antimony company in the heart of Western demand, TMG is in the right place, at the right time, and with a world-class team that is working tirelessly to execute on the company’s plans.
The 90-day mark interim release from April’s executive order mandating a special investigation into the vulnerabilities the US faces from critical minerals supply chain risk, should be just around the corner, and it will likely paint a dire situation for the sourcing of antimony – which should act as a catalyst to get aggressive funding mechanisms moving.
For years, PPTA was the USA’s only hope at antimony production – a large scale gold project that could only supply 35% of domestic demand for just 6 years from 2028. The company has received government funding of US$80 million, and was recently approved to apply for a US$2 billion EXIM loan while locking in a US$425 million equity raise from a raft of elite American hedge funds. TMG would only need a fraction of this to get into production and start making a dent in the USA’s catastrophic antimony supply deficit.
Just last week there were reports of Chinese antimony producers and American antimony consumers circumventing the export bans by rerouting shipments through Thailand and Mexico, which have totalled 3,834t between December and April. China has repeatedly reaffirmed and demonstrated its commitment to stopping these smuggling operations that are illegal from a Chinese standpoint but legal in the eyes of America. Given there is more supply that could come out of the market – US$60,000/t may not be the highest price that gets recorded in the near future.
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