The tungsten market is really starting to heat up after the world’s hardest metal more than doubled in price from US$320/mtu to US$705/mtu since the start of the year. The US Department of War is banning its military procurement from China, Russia and North Korea beginning in 2027 – effectively eliminating 87% of supply and igniting a race to bring on production inside America. The largest tungsten miner outside of China, US$1.3 billion market cap Almonty Industries (ASX: AII – TSX: All – NASDAQ: ALM), just shelled out US$10 million for a 7.53 Mt at 0.315% WO₃ American asset that is capable of near-term, rapid development – despite the ramp up of a Korean mine being its main focus. Trigg Minerals (ASX:TMG) already conducted a comprehensive review of US tungsten assets early in the year, and started snapping up projects in August when the price was under US$500/mtu.
TMG strategically entered the tungsten market with the acquisition of Tennessee Mountain in Nevada, which contains a resource of 780kt grading between 0.3%-0.5% WO₃, as well as the Nightingale Tungsten District, which has previously been mined at grades up to 1.0% WO₃ and recorded historical production of 564,000 pounds of 70% WO₃ concentrate. Both projects are in Nevada, putting TMG in prime position to become a key player in the race to start producing American mined tungsten before the end of next year.
A recent expansion to the tenement package at Tennessee Mountain has consolidated the entire district, capturing 75 historically mined workings with no modern exploration, including the addition of Little Joe which has produced at grades between 0.9-1.5% WO₃, and growing strike to well over 5km. There is a treasure trove of historical data that has unveiled a massive tungsten system with brilliant grades, which include a 24 diamond drill hole campaign for a total of 1,276m recorded assays such as 24.9m at 0.65% WO₃ from 7.68m, including 10.67m at 0.98% WO₃ from 19.81m, and 2.13m at 2.06% WO₃ from 28.35m, as well as 18.38m at 0.72% WO₃ from surface, including 13.17m at 0.91% WO₃ from surface.
The project’s classic skarn system has prolific amounts of near-surface mineralisation which has been exposed by historical trenching. There are are a few key areas being evaluated at the moment, one being 107m long, 4.5m wide and grading 0.61% WO₃, while the others are 115m long, between 3-9m wide and grading 0.3% WO₃, as well as 98m long between 9-15m wide and grading 0.39% WO₃.
There could be a large amount of upside in TMG’s current valuation when factoring in the value of these tungsten projects, which the market is yet to place any real weight on. We first initiated coverage on TMG when it was trading at $0.031 with a $25 million market cap, and it went on to reach $280 million at $0.23/share. It’s since retraced to around $130 million, but with $19 million in cash – the company is extremely well funded to aggressively advance its portfolio of American critical minerals projects. TMG is preparing two major drill programs at the Antimony Canyon Project and Tennessee Mountain Project, so big impact newsflow will be heavy in the coming months.
The tungsten industry has many of the same supply characteristics as antimony, including China controlling 83% of production – while nothing is mined in America. This makes it extremely susceptible to volatile price swings in a normal environment, but when it was chosen as a key pain point for China to press in its export bans that were announced at the end of 2024 – it had nowhere to go but sky high.
The deal recently struck by the US and China for the latter to pause rare earths and critical mineral export restrictions for one year appear quite flimsy, and technically only allow for the theoretical granting of export licenses to certain US buyers. There are multiple reports directly from China about the specifics surrounding permitting processes being extremely obscure and at least months away from allowing anything to be granted. This is compounded by many tungsten traders having no interest or motive to export to the US anyway – prices are just as high inside of China as they are in Rotterdam.
The Pentagon’s launch of a US$1 billion critical minerals stockpile through the Defence Logistics Agency is the perfect backbone for the types of projects that TMG is focused on developing. TMG’s upcoming name change to “American Antimony and Tungsten” beautifully spells out the crucial position TMG will hold in the supply of critical minerals that are vital to so many industries that are the lifeblood of the USA’s defence and economy.
TMG is still firmly focused on developing its flagship Antimony Canyon Project in Utah, which has a refined but still gigantic JORC exploration target of 6.1 to 6.9Mt at 1.4% to 2.3% Sb – with high grade zones that have historically produced 3.6% Sb. The recently completed net-zero smelting study with Metso detailed plans for a facility that will produce 5,000 tons of 99.65% purity antimony ingot, which at US$50,000/t would generate annual revenue of US$250 million (AUD$375 million) – again posing huge upside for TMG’s current AUD$130 million market cap. After meeting the Utah Governor and other state senators, TMG was invited to present to the Utah State Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment Interim Committee – which is now being followed up with on-site visits by government officials.
The vastly expanded tenement package that TMG has laid claim to can be seen below, which covers a litany of historical artisanal mining occurrences and mapped instances of outcropping, that are spread across various locations around the initially acquired Tennessee Mountain Mine:
Source: TMG
Tungsten’s Strong Fundamentals are Driving Record Prices
There are a few key factors at play in critical minerals right now, especially tungsten, that continue to make the overarching thematic extremely attractive to invest in. Demand internally from China is stronger than ever, and the amounts exported have been dwindling for years out of necessity – long before any export controls were introduced.
Just a couple of months ago, China used two foreign companies as proxies to try and take control of a tungsten mine and refinery in Vietnam, which produces 3,400 metric tons a year from the mine but has the capacity to process 6,500 metric tons a year at the refinery – making it a key central processing hub for ore that can economically pass through Asia, notably from Australia. The extreme price rise in tungsten within China can be seen below, highlighting robust internal demand:
Source: SMM
This squeeze in the tungsten market has been years in the making, and began gaining momentum towards the end of 2020 when it was trading around US$225/mtu. This can be seen below in a chart of the Fastmarkets Rotterdam pricing, which represents APT prices outside of China:
Source: TGN
A great barometer for Western investors to assess sentiment in the Tungsten market is ALM, which has traded as high as 10 times its start of 2025 share price, reaching a US$2.5 billion market cap while raising US$90 million to IPO on the Nasdaq on the way there. ALM has been able to achieve an extraordinary valuation from its ramp of the Sandong mine in Korea, which has an 8Mt at 0.51% WO₃ resource and a phase one planned production output of 230kmtu/year – equating to around US$162 million in annual revenue at US$705/mtu. There are plans to double this, which combined with the company’s existing 60kmtu/year operation in Portugal would make a total of 520kmtu/year – or US$366 million in annual revenue.
This is a similar level of revenue to what TMG is staring down the barrel of with the near-term development prospects of its antimony and tungsten assets. The moment there is stronger certainty around production plans, specifically with funding and feasibility studies – TMG is likely to rerate significantly upwards.
District Scale Tungsten Opportunity at Tennessee Mountain
The methodical approach that TMG has taken with its project acquisitions, particularly surrounding geological analysis that is based on significant mineralisation events which manifest in repeated deposits across a district, permits the luxury of selectivity when determining which prospects should be developed first – while maintaining long-term upside once the project has gotten into production.
When TMG initially acquired Tennessee Mountain, the Garnet Mine was a strong point of focus, and the main skarn body was assessed as ranging from approximately 15-30m in width, with high-grade scheelite lenses measuring 5-10m in width and extending down-dip for up to 122m. This made it a very favourable choice for low cost, bulk open pit operations – an ideal first production target.
After having developed a consistent geological model across the entire district, TMG became extremely confident that the high-grade mineralisation at Tennessee Mountain is part of the same mineralising event that deposited tungsten at the other prospects in the newly acquired land – such as Little Joe and Gribble.
As TMG gears up to launch a widespread drilling campaign that will convert these historical deposits into JORC-compliant resources, the viability of Tennessee Mountain as a long-term national security asset grows in line with the true scale of the project.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to invest. All opinions expressed are our own. We may receive fees or other forms of compensation in connection with the publication of this content, and may own shares in any of the mentioned companies. Please do your own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.